Service Plays Saturday 06/27/09

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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

SATURDAY, JUNE 27



NATIONAL LEAGUE


San Francisco (39-33) at Milwaukee (39-34)


The Brewers will try to make it two in a row over the Giants when they send Seth McClung (3-1, 3.24 ERA) to the mound opposite southpaw Barry Zito (4-7, 4.54) at Miller Park in Milwaukee for the second game of this three-game set.


Milwaukee won Friday night’s opener 5-1 behind the four-hit pitching of Yovani Gallardo. These two teams have split four games this season, but the Brewers have won eight of the last 10 overall and 15 of the last 18 played in Milwaukee.


The Brewers are still in slumps of 2-5 in their last seven and 6-11 in their last 17. They are also on slides of 3-7 at Miller Park and 2-5 against the N.L. West, but they have won 18 of 26 against opponents with a winning record and 13 of 16 at home against teams with a winning mark. San Francisco is on slides of 13-31 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 11-27 against the N.L. Central, however the Giants have won five of their last seven overall.


Zito is 2-1 in his last three games, but his ERA is a whopping 7.47. He was solid in his last outing, giving up two runs on two hits over seven innings of a 3-2 win against the Rangers at home. The Giants have won three of his last four outings, including his last road start in Arizona when he allowed four runs on seven hits in five innings of a 6-4 win. The Giants are just 1-15 in his last 16 starts against N.L. Central teams.


Zito has struggled against the Brewers, losing three of his four career outings, including all three in Milwaukee. He’s allowed 21 runs in 14 1/3 innings of work at Miller Park since 2007.


McClung hasn’t made a start since September of last year. The reliever last pitched on Tuesday, throwing one inning and allowing one hit against the Twins. He started 12 games in 2008, going 6-6 with a 4.02 ERA.


With Zito on the hill, the Giants have stayed under the total in eight of his last nine Saturday starts, and overall, they are on “under” streaks of 9-3-1 on the road, 5-1 overall and 6-2-2 on Saturdays. With McClung on the mound for Milwaukee, the Brewers are on “under” runs of 5-1 at home, 9-2-1 overall and 5-0 as a favorite. As a team, Milwaukee is on “over” streaks of 4-0 against left-handed starters and 8-3 overall.


Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on streaks of 10-3-2 in Milwaukee and 21-8-2 in the last 31 meetings overall.


ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE



INTERLEAGUE


N.Y. Yankees (41-32) at N.Y. Mets (37-35)


The Yankees are looking for their fourth straight win today as they send A.J. Burnett (5-4, 4.24 ERA) to the mound to face Mets’ starter Tim Redding (1-2, 6.08) in Game 2 of this version of the Subway Series from Citi Field.


The Yankees pounded the Mets in Friday’s opener, winning 9-1, and getting homers from Alex Rodriguez and Brett Gardner to go along with three-hit pitching from C.C. Sabathia. The Yankees have taken three of four from their crosstown rivals this season and outscored the Mets 24-1 in the last two games and 35-15 in the four contests.


The Yankees are 24-11 in their last 35 as a favorite, but they are on slides of 3-7 on Saturdays, 2-7 on the road against right-handed starters and 2-4 on the highway against teams with winning records. The Mets are just 1-5 in their last six against the American League and 2-6 against A.L. squads with winning records, but they are 11-6 in their last 17 at home against right-handed starters.


Burnett comes in having lost two of his last three decisions but sporting a solid 2.25 ERA in those three games. He’s given up just two runs on nine hits over 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts. On the highway he’s allowed just seven runs in his last three outings, covering 15 innings. He faced the Mets on June 14 and was outstanding, holding them scoreless on four hits over seven innings of a 15-0 shellacking. The Yankees are 4-1 in Burnett’s last five starts as a favorite but just 1-4 in his last five on the highway.


Redding is 1-0 in his last three starts with a 5.12 ERA. He gave up four runs on five hits in seven innings of a 6-4 win over the Cardinals on Monday. However, the Mets are just 2-5 in his seven starts this season and just 1-4 in his last five starts as an underdog.


With Burnett on the hill, the Yankees have stayed under the total in six of his last nine. As a team, the Yankees are on several “under” runs, including 14-6 in interleague action, 7-4-1 on the highway and 13-6 against the N.L. East. The Mets are on “under runs of 4-1 on Saturday, 5-2 in interleague home games and 5-1-1 in the second game of a series. In this rivalry, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings on the Mets’ home field.


ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
 

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Rated Picks

MLB:
LA Angels -115
Boston RedSox +122
Chi WhiteSox -132
Min Twins -105
*BP* Cin Reds/Cle Indians UNDER 10.5
 

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Cubs yesterday. Today it's the Cubs. The surplus is 795 sirignanos.
 
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Hondo

June 27, 2009

Hondo's freefall into the abyss continued last night when betrayals by the Marlins and Giants trimmed his earnings to a super-skimpy 25 mizes.

Tonight, the Pie Guy will be the apple of Mr. Aitch's eye if he whips up a victory in the big Citi -- 10 units on Burnett to muzzle the Metamucils.
 
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MLB DUNKEL

Cincinnati at Cleveland
The Reds look to bounce back from yesterday's loss and take advantage of Cleveland's 2-8 record in its last 10 games versus the NL Central. Cincinnati is the underdog pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+130). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JUNE 27
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: San Francisco at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 16.021; Milwaukee (McClung) 15.102
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+130); Over

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 15.103; Toronto (Mills) 14.799
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Over

Game 905-906: Minnesota at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Slowey) 15.614; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 14.603
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Over

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.293; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.541
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-140); Under

Game 909-910: Boston at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 14.990; Atlanta (Vazquez) 15.227
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Under

Game 911-912: LA Angels at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 15.261; Arizona (Davis) 15.376
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Under

Game 913-914: Washington at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martis) 15.223; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.515
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+155); Over

Game 915-916: Florida at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 16.982; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 15.959
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: Cincinnati at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.591; Cleveland (Ohka) 13.766
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+130); Over

Game 919-920: Detroit at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Figaro) 15.498; Houston (Paulino) 14.898
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under

Game 921-922: Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 13.704; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.344
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 923-924: NY Yankees at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.360; NY Mets (Redding) 16.066
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+170); Over

Game 925-926: San Diego at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 13.641; Texas (Holland) 15.138
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Over

Game 927-928: Colorado at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.308; Oakland (Cahill) 15.401
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-150); Under

Game 929-930: Seattle at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.992; LA Dodgers (Milton) 15.165
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-125); Under
 
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Brandon Lang

Saturday

20 Dime - Tigers (list Figaro over Paulino)

5 Dime - White Sox (list Buerhle over Dempster)

5 Dime - Phillies (list Happ over Mills)



FREE - Texas Rangers
 

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<TABLE class=data><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell>EXPERT: The Prez</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>TITLE: 8* SAT BEST BET BLOWOUT **HUGE 12-0 RUN**</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>REASON FOR PICK:

8* EARLY PITCH BEST BET BLOWOUT
(905) MINNESOTA (SLOWEY) at (906) ST LOUIS (WELLEMEYER) 12:10 PM

Kevin Slowey left Friday's game after the sixth inning with tightness in his ribs. All reports, however, have Slowey felling fine with eight days between starts. Slowey threw a bullpen session Thursday and pronounced himself perfectly fit. The Twins right-hander has put a string of quality starts together that deserve recognition. He's easily the ace of a good Twins staff and he's done it a big differently than his career peripherals would have projected. Slowey hadn't walked more than two in any start this year, but tied a career high with four walks Friday against Houston while pitching through a stiff right side. His K/BB is still 4.8 with a BB/9 of just 1.5 and on extra days' rest this season, the righty is over-the-top good with a 5-0 record and 2.93 ERA. His despite the four walks in his last outing, his pinpoint control is even getting better, 2007/2008/2009 BB/9’s of 1.5/1.4/1.1, and his K/9 is an acceptable 6.3. As a fly ball pitcher, 47% FB%, he is susceptible to the longball, 12 home runs allowed in 72.2 innings, but his strong command limits the damage and pitching in new Busch fits his style perfectly.

Cards starter Todd Wellemeyer has only tossed one quality start in his last nine starts, and while he's been a victim of some bad luck, his velocity is down and his ability to get swings and misses is at a career low. A diluted New York Mets lineup slapped the right-hander for five runs, 10 hits and four walks in a 6-4 victory during his last start at pitcher friendly Citi Field. Wellemeyer was in trouble in almost all of his 5 2/3 innings, and though he often kept the Mets to a minimum — one run here, another there — he never looked comfortable. In his career Wellemeyer has been much better away from Busch, so a start today against a terrific group of left-handed bats makes the Cards starter a valued play-against. Wellemeyer has a near 9.00 ERA against left-handed hitters and 10.00 ERA with runners on base. His 22.50 ERA with runners in scoring position is explained by his drop in velocity and inability to create swings and misses.

The Twins are 16-5 against the money line versus a National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last two seasons and 24-9 overall against the money line in an inter-league games.

The favorable opening line (Twins -110) offers far too much value to pass up. Look for a second straight easy victory by the Twins and their ace today.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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WNBA Basketball Picks

Phoenix at Minnesota

The Mercury (6-3 SU) look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games against teams with a winning SU record. Phoenix is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JUNE 27
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST
Game 601-602: Atlanta at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 106.087; Connecticut 115.624
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 9 1/2; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 7 1/2; 156 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-7 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: New York at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.380; Indiana 114.715
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 141 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 143
Dunkel Pick: New York (+7); Under
Game 605-606: Phoenix at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 115.054; Minnesota 110.344
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 173
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 178 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-2 1/2); Under
Game 607-608: Washington at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 104.885; Chicago 113.061
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 8; 156 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 5; 151
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-5); Over
 

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52W-32L this year.


<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>The Hammer</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Saturday, June 27, 2009
$25.00 Guaranteed: Last year we were 80-43 for PLUS $3490 in Baseball and that is playing just $100 per game, my Dime Players made over $34,900 in Baseball Last Year! Get my PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB BASEBALL WINNER for just $25 and pay only after you win! 54-32 RUN!
</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>6/27/2009</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB BASEBALL WINNER
Minnesota w/Slowey -115 1:10 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Any Elite Sports Circle (YWN)? 100W-52L last year.
 

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Fantasy Sports Gametime

Saturday Plays MLB Baseball

100* Play Minnesota (-115) over St. Louis

Minnesota has won 36 of the last 52 inter-league games and they have also won 11 of the last 16 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents. Kevin Slowey has won 6 consecutive games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and he has also won 9 of the last 10 inter-league games.

100* Play Chicago White Sox (-140) over Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have lost 4 of the last 5 games and they have also lost 12 of last 14 games as an underdog of +100 or higher. Ryan Dempster has lost 8 of the last 9 road games and he is also 1-2 vs. the Chicago White Sox over his career with an ERA of 6.61. Mark Buehrle has won 20 of the last 23 home games when pitching on a Saturday and he has also won 15 of the last 20 games when working on five or six days of rest.

50* Play Philadelphia (-120) over Toronto

Toronto has lost 8 of the last 12 games vs. NL East Division Opponents and Brad Mills has an ERA of 9.81 in all starts this season. Philadelphia has won 9 of the last 10 road games when the line posted is between -100 to -125 and J.A. Happ is 4-0 in all starts this season with an ERA of 3.47.

50* Play Cleveland (-150) over Cincinnati

Cincinnati has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 11 games when playing on a Saturday. Home Bailey has lost 9 consecutive games over the last two seasons and he has an ERA of 12.47 this season in all starts.

WNBA 100* Play Minnesota (+3) over Phoenix

Phoenix has lost 9 of the last 11 games against the spread after having won four or five of the last six games and they have also lost 17 of the last 25 games against the spread after scoring 75 points or more in 3 consecutive games. Minnesota has covered the spread in 12 of the last 15 games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent by 20 points or more and they have also covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 home games when the total posted is greater than 140 points.

Baseball and WNBA are free for the rest of the year!
 
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Mr. A's

Saturday, June 27th, 2009, 4:10 PM EST.
Boston Red Sox (45-28) at Atlanta Braves (34-39)
(R) Tim Wakefield (9-3) vs. (R) Javier Vazquez (5-6)
Oddsmakers: Atlanta as a -135 home favorite with the total listed at 8½ 'over'.

Boston Red Sox +125

Saturday, June 27th, 2009, 10:10 PM EST.
Seattle Mariners (37-36) at Los Angeles Dodgers (48-26)
(R) Felix Hernandez (7-3) vs. (L) Eric Milton (2-0)
Oddsmakers: Seattle as a -130 road favorite with the total listed at 7½ 'over'.

Los Angeles Dodgers +110
 
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Gina

Saturday, June 27th, 2009 4:10 p.m. est.

Los Angeles Angels (39-32) at Arizona Diamondbacks (30-44)
(R) John Lackey (2-3) vs. (L) Doug Davis (3-8)

The hot Los Angeles Angels have won 10 of 13 games overall and are 12-4 in interleague play. To boot, right-hander John Lackey has gone 7-0 with a 2.54 ERA in his last nine starts against NL opponents. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are struggling. Arizona has dropped their last three games and nine of 12 overall. Go with the Angels to win their fifth straight road game. The Diamondbacks have lost their last 4 interleague home games.

Los Angeles Angels -120
 

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